Goldman Sachs Drops A Grim Prediction For US Car Sales

The Trump administration’s automotive tariffs could have a devastating impact on sales and prices. While much of the initial focus has been on the latter, we’re getting a better idea of how much sales could tumble.

According to Reuters, Goldman Sachs lowered their annual U.S. automotive sales forecast from 16.25 million units to 15.40 million. This is a decline of 850,000 vehicles and the company predicted an even worse time in 2026. That forecast was cut 1.1 million units to 15.25 million, which is below the number they expect this year.

More: Trump “Couldn’t Care Less” If Automakers Raise Prices Over Tariffs

Trump’s 25% tariff on automotive imports is widely known, but that isn’t the only thing that could weigh on sales. Quite the opposite as steel and aluminum tariffs are still in effect, and tariffs on certain automotive parts could come into play this May.

All of this means prices for new vehicles are expected to rise, regardless if they’re made domestically or internationally. How much remains the big question, but Goldman Sachs believes automakers won’t be able to pass on all the added costs to consumers, especially as demand softens.

While there’s still a lot of uncertainty, the financial giant expects prices on new cars to climb by $2,000 to $4,000 in the next six months to a year. That’s a sizable increase, but much lower than some worst case scenarios.

Putting U.S. sales aside, the company lowered their forecast for global automotive production from 90.4 million units to 88.7 million units. Their 2026 estimate also fell from 92.6 million to 90.7 million.